ERCOT and Electricity Demand During Hot Summer Months
According to a report by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the estimated peak demand for power this summer is expected to be about 6,000 megawatts higher than last year. When demand for power during the hottest days exceeds grid supply, Texans will rely on renewable energy sources like wind and solar to keep the lights on [1]. North Texas could experience brownouts this summer under extreme scenarios [2]. Brownouts typically occur when utility companies temporarily reduce electricity flow to specific areas to prevent large-scale blackouts [3]. ERCOT revealed a forecast for how well the grid could handle scorching hot days in the next several months through the Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) created ahead of the winter and summer seasons [2]. The latest SARA report raises concerns about whether or not the power grid can handle this year's expected record-breaking summer power consumption [4].
According to the SARA report, emergency conditions are possible when extreme heat; low renewable energy output; and widespread, unplanned outages at dispatchable power plants occur simultaneously. There is a less than 1% chance of this happening [3]. The base summer peak load is expected to be 82,739 megawatts (MW) based on 2007–2021 data. The report also states that over “97,000 MW of summer-rated resource capacity is expected to be available for summer peak load [4].” Last summer, the grid broke multiple records and reached peak demand of just over 80,000 megawatts on July 20 [3].
Public Utility Commission (PUC) Chairman Peter Lake and ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas blamed rapid population growth in Texas for grid supply and demand issues. During a press conference, Lake said between 2008 and 2022, on-demand dispatchable power supply–or power produced by coal plants, nuclear energy, and natural gas–in Texas grew only 1.5%; in that same time frame, the state's population grew 24% [5]. The grid has added significant renewable resource capacity from 2008 through 2022, but because renewable supply is dependent on wind and sun conditions, it cannot be relied on during periods of high demand [1]. This summer, the riskiest hours on the hottest days are at 9 p.m. and when solar power fades away at sunset [2].
Lawmakers in Austin are debating several proposals that could use taxpayer dollars to build more power plants to meet demand [2]. Among them is a nine-bill Senate plan supported by Senators Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown, and Phil King, R-Weatherford [3]. If ERCOT issues an emergency, Bryan Texas Utilities (BTU) will communicate with its customers and offer advice to reduce power consumption during the summer months, such as delaying chores that create heat and humidity until the cooler parts of the day [4].
Sources:
[1]https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/texas-power-grid-ercot-18079543.php
[4]https://www.kbtx.com/2023/05/06/bryan-texas-utilities-ready-summer-heat-ercot-warns-brownouts/
